Monday, May 14, 2012

What is the true value of Facebook

In light of the IPO it is worth an analysis of what the true value of Facebook is.


There is no doubt in my mind that there will be those that will make a short-term profit out of the IPO. Some, especially the private investor and those that live in countries outside the US, Canada, UK etc, those will have a tougher time in obtaining a slice of the pie.

I really don't get the numbers. I have read that the valuation (by Facebook) represents around $100 per Facebook member. I have also heard that only 1 in a 1,000 of Facebook users actually click on an ad that they see in Facebook. I find it hard to see how that all ads up???

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Update 18 May 2012.

The IPO flat price was $38 - it quickly peaked at $42.

I decided not to buy in-to the IPO. If anything an extension of our Apple holdings might be a better idea. I don't think that the 1,000% plus gain on the original investment in Apple is going to be repeated in anyway with the Facebook offering. Even the second purchase of Apple is doing well at +50% or so, and analysts are saying that a price of $750 to $1,000 are not out of the question.

I think the situation was a bit like the Tim Horton's IPO, there was much muttering from those that could not get in at the start. The institutional investors were there in force, pushing up the price on IPO day and selling to make a quick profit. This was what happened with FB, the $38 offering price opened at $42 and then closed a smidgen over $38. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

Unlike Tim Horton's I don't think I will bother when the price comes down. I had some "Timmies" before in any case as I bought Wendy's stock before they were spun off - I couldn't ignore the lines outside all the outlets I drove past. I don't understand that either, the coffee that is, but there is no doubt about TH's popularity.

Bloomberg set $25 target:

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree. The best thing a sane investor should do is stay well away!

Anonymous said...

Whendid timmies start selling coffee?

Mountainview said...

Was wondering what your Facebook name was.